Hardwood Lumber Market Forecast for December 14, 2025

The hardwood lumber market is anticipated to experience moderate price increases in the coming month, driven by constrained supply chains and ongoing trade restrictions that limit imports. Demand is expected to remain stable but cautious, particularly in export markets where economic uncertainties could temper growth. Production levels may see slight improvements as operating rates adjust, potentially leading to a 510% uptick in output, though volatility from policy changes and tariffs could cause fluctuations. Overall, the market outlook points toward tightening conditions, with potential for higher costs in key species like oak and maple if residential construction activity picks up modestly.


Total Single Family Home Housing Starts Based on Volume for Each of the Most Recent 6 Months

The following table shows the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for single family housing starts in thousands of units:

 Month                                Housing Starts (Thousands)

 June 2025                                             982                       

 July 2025                                              957                       

 August 2025                                         890                       

 September 2025                                  905                   

 October 2025                                       912                     

 November 2025                                   928                    

 

 US Hardwood Lumber Total Imports ($) and Exports ($) for Each of the Most Recent 6 Months

The following table summarizes the total value in millions of US dollars for hardwood lumber imports and exports:

 Month                               Imports ($ Millions)            Exports ($ Millions)

 June 2025                                   120                                               85                  

 July 2025                                    115                                               82                  

 August 2025                               118                                               80                  

 September 2025                        122                                               84                  

 October 2025                             117                                               81                  

 November 2025                          119                                              83              


    

Current Average Flatbed Trucking Rates in $/Mile for Each Region of the US

The following table provides the average flatbed trucking rates per mile across US regions, based on recent outbound spot market data including fuel surcharges:

 Region                                       Average Rate ($/Mile)

 Northeast                                             $2.33                 

 Southeast                                             $2.63                 

 Midwest                                                $2.63                 

 Northwest                                             $2.50                 

 Southwest                                             $2.49                 

 

 

Average Monthly US Commercial Real Estate Delinquency Rates for Each of the Last 6 Months

The following table lists the average delinquency rates for commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS), representing a key measure of commercial real estate performance:

 Month                                        Delinquency Rate (%)

 June 2025                                               6.36                

 July 2025                                                6.85                

 August 2025                                           7.29                

 September 2025                                    7.23            

 October 2025                                         7.46              

 November 2025                                     7.80